🔗 Share this article

Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable due to political dynamics along with bad blood among the two parties.

Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because both parties – as well as the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.

Here are several key factors that make things feel different in 2025.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare

Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate they have listened.

Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's digging in.

This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.

Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.

Second, For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".

Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Chicago.

3. There's little trust on either side

While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.

The legislative leader from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".

Meanwhile, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy is fragile

Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough due to the shutdown.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.

On the other hand, analysts say should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.